SUGPSU Group Holdings Ltd · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

1.41M
Reported Float
594.8K
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
▲ data says 1.41Moverstated 2.4×
594.8K
Effective Supply
8.48M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk6/10
CONFIDENCE: LOW
ELEVATEDAssessed Aug 6, 2026Trigger: Reverse splitCRITICALVariable-rate warrant with full-ratchet and proportionate share expansionHIGHRecently registered resale shares not in data-service float

Convertibles/preferred: none outstanding — zero weight from the heaviest component. Warrant overhang: 6,000,000 pre-split warrants (1,200,000 post-split) carry FULL-RATCHET anti-dilution plus semi-annual periodic exercise-price resets in which the share count increases proportionately so the US$33.0M aggregate exercise proceeds stay constant — at the US$0.87 Initial Exercise Price Floor (US$4.35 post-split) they become 7,586,207 post-split shares, or roughly 1,275% of the 594,834 estimated float. That is the entire risk story. It is materially discounted right now because even the floor strike of US$4.35 sits ~2.2x above the US$1.96 market, so exercise is currently uneconomic and no shares can be forced onto the tape. The structure is, however, engineered so that any price rally into the US$4.35+ zone releases up to 8.5x the outstanding share count of registered, free-trading stock — a hard ceiling on momentum. Recent activity is high: US$6.0M unit deal closed 2026-05-13, resale registration effective 2026-06-18 (unlocking the US$2.0M escrow tranche), reverse split 2026-08-06. Historical pattern is poor: two reverse splits in 12 months and a Nasdaq minimum-bid/public-holder compliance cycle in 2025. Score held at 6 rather than 8+ because there is no live, in-the-money mechanism that can print shares today.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (as-of date unknown). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 595K vs 1.41M reported — overstated 2.4×

Insight Sentry reports float 2,974,170 and shares outstanding 22,323,860 — both fail the sanity check against the 2026-06-18 cover-page count of 4,464,772 pre-split (892,954 post-split). The feed has NOT processed the 1-for-5 reverse split effective 2026-08-06 in its share/float fields (its price of US$1.96 and market cap of US$8.5M, however, do appear post-split-consistent, so the record is inter...

Reported Float1.41M16.6%
Warrants7.59M89.5%
common1.20M shares at $27.5
common6.39M shares at $4.35
pre-funded0 shares at $0.0005
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

595K

LOW confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float1,275.5%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted8.48M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

See the full breakdown

Red flags, financing counterparties, the deal timeline, and every SEC filing — free with an account.

Sign in to continue
Dilution profile
Reverse splits (2)
  • 1-for-10·Aug 25, 2025~1 yr ago
  • 1-for-5·Aug 6, 2026~1 mo ago
Active mechanisms
  • Full-ratchet anti-dilution warrants with semi-annual periodic exercise-price reset and proportionate share-count increase (variable-rate equivalent) — 25-month term to 2028-06-13
  • Effective resale registration 333-296734 covering 38,317,241 pre-split (7,663,448 post-split) warrant shares
  • Effective registration 333-291851 covering the base 6,000,000 pre-split (1,200,000 post-split) warrant shares
  • Authorized share headroom of 750,000,000 pre-split (150,000,000 post-split) versus <1M shares outstanding — no structural constraint on further issuance

Market Data

Price

$0.71

Market Cap

$1.86M

Outstanding

2.33M

Float

1.41M

Avg Volume

430.5K

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry