SCNIScinai Immunotherapeutics Ltd. · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

690.7K
Reported Float
387.1K
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
▲ data says 690.7Koverstated 78%
918.4K
Effective Supply
2.18M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk9/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
EXTREMEAssessed Aug 21, 2026Trigger: Reverse splitCRITICALNear-zero-strike pre-funded warrant overhangCRITICALVariable-rate equity line (ELOC) re-armed

Effective supply is 2.37x the tradeable float before a single new dollar is raised: 531,328 post-split ADSs of near-zero-strike pre-funded warrants ($0.001–$0.01) sit with Armistice, Intracoastal and RK Stone, all exercisable immediately and all registered for resale since 2026-05-19 — they convert to tape supply at the holders' discretion, throttled only by 4.99%/9.99% blockers that are recycled as fast as they sell. On top of that, the $15.0M Yorkville SEPA prices at 97% of the lowest daily VWAP over a 3-day look-back (a true variable-rate mechanism, 480,000 post-split ADSs registered = 124% of float), and the April 2026 PIPE's 90-day Variable Rate Transaction prohibition lapsed on approximately 2026-08-17 — meaning the ELOC is live again as of this assessment. Recent activity confirms the machine is running: share count grew 306.6% in calendar 2025 (3.41B to 13.87B ordinary), then another 14% by 2026-05-05, with an April 2026 PIPE, a warrant repricing from $6.50 to $0.48, and continuous ELOC draws. Historical pattern is the worst tier: three 1-for-10 reverse splits (2022-11-25, 2024-05-21, 2026-08-21) and a repeat cast of dilutive PIPE/ELOC counterparties. The only mitigating element is that the Series A/B/Inducement/FA warrants (1,113,570 ADSs at $4.80–$5.50) are out-of-the-money versus $3.22 and carry no disclosed price-reset — but this issuer's own history (the January 2024 warrants were repriced from $6.50 to $0.48) shows out-of-the-money strikes get renegotiated downward rather than expiring.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (reported_float 387,071.65). Sanity check: the feed's shares_outstanding (3,959,792) is the PRE-split 2026-05-05 cover-page ADS count and is stale; the float figure equals 97.75% of the POST-split outstanding (395,979), so the float field appears already split-adjusted while the outstanding field is not. Reported market cap of $1.16M is internally inconsistent with price x either share count and was disregarded.. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 387K vs 691K reported — overstated 78%

Insight Sentry reports float 387,072 alongside shares_outstanding 3,959,792 — an internally inconsistent pairing (9.8% float) that resolves only if the float field is post-1-for-10-split and the outstanding field is the stale pre-split 2026-05-05 cover page. Data services have not yet ingested: (a) the 2026-08-21 1-for-10 reverse split in the outstanding field; (b) any pre-funded warrant exercises...

Reported Float691K31.6%
Convertible Notes6.69M306.4%
YA II PN, Ltd. (Yorkville) Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) — September 10, 2025, $15.0 million commitment, 36-month commitment period
Conv. Price: floating_discount
Est. Shares: ~480K (agent-computed)
March 2025 SEPA with YA II PN (superseded/auto-terminated on effectiveness of the September 2025 registration statement)
Conv. Price: floating_discount
Est. Shares: ~6.21M (variable-discount)
Warrants1.70M77.8%
pre-funded503K shares at $0.001
pre-funded28K shares at $0.01
common521K shares at $4.8
common521K shares at $5.5
common46K shares at $5.5
placement_agent26K shares at $5.3
common54K shares
Other13K0.6%
Options / RSUs13K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

387K

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float585.8%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted2.18M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (3)
  • 1-for-10·Aug 21, 2026this month
  • 1-for-10·May 21, 2024~2 yr ago
  • 1-for-10·Nov 25, 2022~4 yr ago
Active mechanisms
  • Near-zero-strike pre-funded warrants (531,328 post-split ADSs at $0.001–$0.01) exercisable immediately, resale-registered, held by Armistice/Intracoastal/RK Stone under recycling 4.99%/9.99% blockers
  • YA II PN (Yorkville) $15.0M Standby Equity Purchase Agreement — 97% of lowest daily VWAP over a 3-day pricing period; VRT prohibition lapsed approximately 2026-08-17
  • 480,000 post-split ADSs registered for Yorkville resale under F-1 333-290437 (effective 2025-09-30)
  • 1,634,404 post-split ADSs registered for PIPE-investor resale under F-3 333-295698 (effective 2026-05-19)
  • EIB Preferred Shares — 1,000 shares convertible into 36,400 post-split ADSs at a fixed ratio, no cash payment required, 4.99% blocker
  • Serial warrant repricing/inducement practice (January 2024 Warrants cut from $6.50 to $0.48 in April 2026)
  • Reverse split resets that restore the runway for further low-priced issuance

Market Data

Price

$1.66

Market Cap

$946.2K

Outstanding

570.0K

Float

690.7K

Avg Volume

570.7K

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry
SCNI Float & Dilution Analysis | ShareStructure.io