RKDAArcadia Biosciences, Inc. · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

2.41M
Reported Float
2.41M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
6.06M
Effective Supply
16.09M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk8/10
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
HIGHAssessed Aug 28, 2026Trigger: ReassessmentCRITICALNear-zero-strike pre-funded warrant overhangCRITICALTotal derivative overhang vs. float

Pure supply mechanics: 2.41M shares of float against 13.68M unexercised derivative shares (568% of float). The dominant, immediately actionable slug is 3,656,000 pre-funded warrants struck at $0.0001 — functionally already-issued stock at zero cost, exercisable now, registered for resale since 7/8/2026, and equal to 152% of the entire float. That single instrument is the definition of massive in-the-money warrant overhang. Layered on top: share count already grew 17.1% in three months (5/7→8/6) and 76.2% over twelve months, driven by two financings in six months (Jan 2026 inducement, June 2026 PIPE) with the same counterparties recycling reset warrants. Two prior reverse splits (1-for-20, 1-for-40) and a third proposed (1-for-2 to 1-for-10, on the 9/10/2026 ballot) confirm a repeating dilute-and-consolidate cycle. Mitigants that keep this off a 9-10: there are no convertible notes, no preferred stock outstanding, no ELOC and no ATM; the $0.91/$1.2875/$2.325 options are all out of the money at $0.53 and carry no reset or floating-price mechanism; and the company is contractually barred from Variable Rate Transactions until June 2027.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:RKDA), price $0.53, implied market cap $1.28M. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float2.41M14.9%
Warrants13.51M83.9%
pre-funded3.66M shares at $0.0001
common3.88M shares at $0.91
common3.88M shares at $0.91
common1.62M shares at $2.325
placement_agent272K shares at $1.2875
placement_agent57K shares at $3.2188
placement_agent33K shares at $11.25
placement_agent6K shares at $52.8
common91K shares at $125.2
placement_agent10K shares at $159.6
common1K shares at $16
common1K shares at $11.2
Options / RSUs174K1.1%
Stock Options174K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

2.41M

HIGH confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float568.83%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted16.09M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (2)
  • 1-for-20·Jan 24, 2018~9 yr ago
  • 1-for-40·Mar 1, 2023~4 yr ago
Active mechanisms
  • 3,656,000 pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 — exercisable now, registered, cashless-capable, no expiration (PRIMARY)
  • 3,883,496 Series A-2 preferred investment options at $0.91 — exercisable now, registered, OTM at $0.53
  • 3,883,496 Series A-1 preferred investment options at $0.91 — unlock on stockholder approval scheduled 2026-09-10
  • 1,617,190 January 2026 investment options at $2.325 — exercisable now, registered, deep OTM
  • 328,347 H.C. Wainwright placement agent options across four vintages ($1.2875 to $52.80)
  • 9.99% beneficial ownership blocker mechanics forcing sell-then-exercise cycling by Armistice
  • Proposed 1-for-2 to 1-for-10 reverse split (board discretion through 2027-06-30) that would reset the option/warrant ladder and enable a fresh dilution cycle at a higher nominal price

Market Data

Price

$0.48

Market Cap

$1.16M

Outstanding

2.41M

Float

2.41M

Avg Volume

69.0K

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry