RKDAArcadia Biosciences, Inc. · Nasdaq Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

2.18M
Reported Float
2.18M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
6.06M
Effective Supply
16.11M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk7/10
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
HIGHAssessed Jul 9, 2026Trigger: EFFECT registration filingCRITICALNear-zero-strike pre-funded warrant overhangHIGHRecently effective large resale registration

Driven by supply mechanics, not fundamentals: 3,883,496 pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 (178% of the 2.18M float) are exercisable now and registered for resale — effectively issued stock that can flood the tape in 9.99%-capped tranches. Layered on top are 7.77M preferred investment options at $0.91 (Series A-1/A-2, ~26% above the $0.72 price — near-the-money, one small rally from becoming live supply) plus 1.67M Jan-2026 options at $2.325. A total resale shelf of 11.9M shares (5.5x float) is already effective. Tempered from EXTREME because there are NO variable-rate/floating conversion (death-spiral) mechanisms — all strikes are fixed and the largest option tranches are currently out-of-the-money.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float2.18M13.5%
Warrants13.79M85.6%
pre-funded3.88M shares at $0.0001
common3.88M shares at $0.91
common3.88M shares at $0.91
placement_agent272K shares at $1.2875
common1.62M shares at $2.325
placement_agent57K shares at $3.2188
common198K shares at $120
Options / RSUs177K1.1%
Stock Options177K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

2.18M

HIGH confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float641.4%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted16.11M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (2)
  • 1-for-40·Mar 1, 2023~3 yr ago
  • 1-for-20·Jan 24, 2018~9 yr ago
Active mechanisms
  • ▸3.88M pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 exercisable now (registered for resale)
  • ▸Series A-2 preferred investment options 3.88M at $0.91 exercisable now (registered, near-money)
  • ▸Series A-1 preferred investment options 3.88M at $0.91 pending stockholder approval
  • ▸January 2026 investment options 1.62M at $2.325 (registered, effective)
  • ▸Effective S-3 resale registration covering 11.92M shares

Market Data

Price

$0.64

Market Cap

$1.40M

Outstanding

2.18M

Float

2.18M

Avg Volume

54.5K

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry