NCTIntercont (Cayman) Ltd · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

8.54M
Reported Float
24.54M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
▲ data says 8.54Munderstated 2.9×
24.54M
Effective Supply
26.30M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk8/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
HIGHAssessed Sep 11, 2026Trigger: EFFECT registration filingCRITICALZero-exercise-price warrant overhang / recent free-share issuanceCRITICALELOC / equity line remaining capacity

Supply-side only. (1) Float has already expanded roughly 24x on a split-adjusted basis in fourteen months — from ~1,067,000 split-equivalent shares at 2025-06-30 to 25,644,338 at 2026-08-14 — with 16,000,000 of that arriving in a single August slug at a zero exercise price. (2) The White Lion equity line still has ~$9.57M of undrawn capacity (expandable to $30M by mutual consent) running to at least 2027-02-20; at $0.2925 that is ~32.7 million shares, or 133% of the current float, issuable at market-linked prices with no floor. (3) Eight ELOC draws were executed between 2025-12-01 and 2026-04-17 at steadily collapsing prices ($11.75 → $1.45 post-split), establishing an active, mechanical drip. (4) A $200,000,000 F-3 shelf was filed 2026-08-14 — approximately 26x the current market cap. (5) The 8,000,000 July 2026 Warrants carry a zero-exercise-price option for two shares each expiring 2027-01-08; to whatever extent they are not already exercised, that is 16,000,000 free shares landing within 90 days. Held below 9-10 because the one true death-spiral instrument — the Streeterville floorless 82.5%-of-lowest-VWAP Pre-Paid Purchase — was terminated 2026-04-30, and the only fixed-strike warrants outstanding (Kingswood, $210.00) are ~718x out of the money with no reset.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:NCT) — reported float 8,539,503 vs reported shares outstanding 9,644,338; internally consistent and clearly POST the 25:1 reverse split, but pegged to the post-July-offering share count. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 24.54M vs 8.54M reported — understated 2.9×

Insight Sentry reports float of 8,539,503 against outstanding of 9,644,338 — that outstanding figure reconciles exactly to 9,437,740 Class A (post-July-2026 offering) + 206,598 Class B, so the feed has captured the 25:1 reverse split and the 8,000,000-share July offering but has NOT captured the 16,000,000 Class A delivered on the zero-exercise-price Warrant option that the 2026-08-14 F-3 cover pa...

Reported Float8.54M32.5%
Float Adjustments16.00M60.8%
+16.00M sharesMEDIUM

16,000,000 Class A Ordinary Shares delivered on exercise of the July 2026 Warrants under the zero-exercise-price option (2 shares per Warrant on 8,000,000 Warrants). Evidenced by the 2026-08-14 F-3 cover page showing 25,437,740 Class A outstanding vs 9,437,740 immediately post-offering; the F-3 also states all 25,437,740 are held by non-affiliates. Registered under the effective F-1 primary offering, therefore free-trading on issuance.

Source: F-3 filed 2026-08-14 (cover page shares outstanding and public float basis); F-1 filed 2026-06-08 (zero exercise price Warrant terms)

Convertible Notes11.84M45.0%
Class B Ordinary Shares — convertible at any time at holder option into Class A (1:1); 100 votes per share post 2026-06-05
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~207K (agent-computed)
Streeterville Capital, LLC Pre-Paid Purchases (Initial $2,175,000 + second $540,000) — settleable in Class A at 82.5% of the lowest daily VWAP over the prior 10 trading days (floorless, death-spiral mechanic), 9.99% blocker
Conv. Price: floating_discount
Est. Shares: ~10.98M (variable-discount)
Beverly Holding Limited subscription for 650,000 Class B Ordinary Shares (agreed 2026-06-04) — each convertible 1:1 into Class A
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~650K (agent-computed)
Warrants16.00M60.9%
common16.00M shares
placement_agent3K shares at $210
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

24.54M

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float68.71%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted26.30M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits
  • 1-for-25·Apr 2, 2026~5 mo ago
Active mechanisms
  • White Lion Capital equity line of credit — ~$9,567,559 undrawn of $10,000,000 (expandable to $30,000,000), market-linked pricing, commitment period through at least 2027-02-20
  • July 2026 Warrants — 8,000,000 warrants with a zero-exercise-price option delivering 16,000,000 Class A shares, expiring 2027-01-08
  • $200,000,000 Form F-3 shelf filed 2026-08-14 (Class A, debt, warrants, rights, units) — pending effectiveness
  • Board-authorized further reverse share split at any ratio from 1-for-2 to 1-for-1,000, exercisable at director discretion through 2031-06-05, enabling a repeat of the split-then-dilute cycle
  • Class B Ordinary Shares convertible 1:1 into Class A at holder option (206,598 outstanding; a further 650,000 subscribed by the CEO affiliate)
  • Effective resale registration 333-291313 covering selling-shareholder Class A shares

Market Data

Price

$0.30

Market Cap

$4.26M

Outstanding

9.64M

Float

8.54M

Avg Volume

21.69M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry