From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.
Supply-side only. (1) Float has already expanded roughly 24x on a split-adjusted basis in fourteen months — from ~1,067,000 split-equivalent shares at 2025-06-30 to 25,644,338 at 2026-08-14 — with 16,000,000 of that arriving in a single August slug at a zero exercise price. (2) The White Lion equity line still has ~$9.57M of undrawn capacity (expandable to $30M by mutual consent) running to at least 2027-02-20; at $0.2925 that is ~32.7 million shares, or 133% of the current float, issuable at market-linked prices with no floor. (3) Eight ELOC draws were executed between 2025-12-01 and 2026-04-17 at steadily collapsing prices ($11.75 → $1.45 post-split), establishing an active, mechanical drip. (4) A $200,000,000 F-3 shelf was filed 2026-08-14 — approximately 26x the current market cap. (5) The 8,000,000 July 2026 Warrants carry a zero-exercise-price option for two shares each expiring 2027-01-08; to whatever extent they are not already exercised, that is 16,000,000 free shares landing within 90 days. Held below 9-10 because the one true death-spiral instrument — the Streeterville floorless 82.5%-of-lowest-VWAP Pre-Paid Purchase — was terminated 2026-04-30, and the only fixed-strike warrants outstanding (Kingswood, $210.00) are ~718x out of the money with no reset.
Share Structure
Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown
Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:NCT) — reported float 8,539,503 vs reported shares outstanding 9,644,338; internally consistent and clearly POST the 25:1 reverse split, but pegged to the post-July-offering share count. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.
Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 24.54M vs 8.54M reported — understated 2.9×
Insight Sentry reports float of 8,539,503 against outstanding of 9,644,338 — that outstanding figure reconciles exactly to 9,437,740 Class A (post-July-2026 offering) + 206,598 Class B, so the feed has captured the 25:1 reverse split and the 8,000,000-share July offering but has NOT captured the 16,000,000 Class A delivered on the zero-exercise-price Warrant option that the 2026-08-14 F-3 cover pa...
16,000,000 Class A Ordinary Shares delivered on exercise of the July 2026 Warrants under the zero-exercise-price option (2 shares per Warrant on 8,000,000 Warrants). Evidenced by the 2026-08-14 F-3 cover page showing 25,437,740 Class A outstanding vs 9,437,740 immediately post-offering; the F-3 also states all 25,437,740 are held by non-affiliates. Registered under the effective F-1 primary offering, therefore free-trading on issuance.
Source: F-3 filed 2026-08-14 (cover page shares outstanding and public float basis); F-1 filed 2026-06-08 (zero exercise price Warrant terms)
Reported float + filing adjustments
MEDIUM confidence
Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.
Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.
See the full breakdown
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Sign in to continue- 1-for-25·Apr 2, 2026~5 mo ago
- ▸White Lion Capital equity line of credit — ~$9,567,559 undrawn of $10,000,000 (expandable to $30,000,000), market-linked pricing, commitment period through at least 2027-02-20
- ▸July 2026 Warrants — 8,000,000 warrants with a zero-exercise-price option delivering 16,000,000 Class A shares, expiring 2027-01-08
- ▸$200,000,000 Form F-3 shelf filed 2026-08-14 (Class A, debt, warrants, rights, units) — pending effectiveness
- ▸Board-authorized further reverse share split at any ratio from 1-for-2 to 1-for-1,000, exercisable at director discretion through 2031-06-05, enabling a repeat of the split-then-dilute cycle
- ▸Class B Ordinary Shares convertible 1:1 into Class A at holder option (206,598 outstanding; a further 650,000 subscribed by the CEO affiliate)
- ▸Effective resale registration 333-291313 covering selling-shareholder Class A shares
Market Data
$0.30
$4.26M
9.64M
8.54M
21.69M