LGHLLion Group Holding Ltd · Nasdaq Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

711.6K
Reported Float
711.6K
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
761.4K
Effective Supply
1.62M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk10/10
CONFIDENCE: LOW
EXTREMEAssessed Jul 27, 2026Trigger: Manual requestCRITICALVariable-rate convertible notes (death spiral) with lender-controlled draw optionCRITICALExplosive share count growth (+1,545% in 8 months) masked by serial ADS ratio changes

Textbook maximum-risk supply structure. (1) CONVERTIBLES: a single lender group (ATW) holds four senior secured convertible instruments with variable/alternate conversion pricing and resettable floors, plus an open $586,000,000 undrawn facility against an $840,281 market cap — a 697x ratio. Critically, the lender holds a BUYER'S OPTION CLOSING, meaning ATW can force the company to issue more convertible paper regardless of price. Disclosed conversion shares alone total 113,769,665,507 Class A ordinary shares (~388,955 current ADS-equivalents = 55% of the float) computed at floor prices that the parties have shown a willingness to reset. (2) WARRANTS: 88,692,187,500 underlying Class A shares (~303,221 ADS-equivalents = 43% of float), and the Series H/I/J/K blocks demonstrably received 50x anti-dilution ratchets between grant and the December 2025 prospectus — these are functionally floating-strike warrants, and Series K (85,537 ADS-equivalents) prices out near the money. Every series is described as 'and its amendments,' confirming a serial repricing history. (3) RECENT ACTIVITY: continuous. Split-adjusted ADS-equivalent outstanding rose from ~56,118 to 922,879 in eight months (+1,545%), a December 5 2025 note closed, a fresh 1-for-9 reverse split hit two weeks ago on 2026-07-14, and the largest reported holder is unwinding on the tape right now. (4) HISTORY: four reverse splits since July 2023 (1:50, 1:50, 1:13, 1:9 = cumulative 1-for-292,500), ATW Partners as the sole financier, and 75% of every draw contractually diverted into HYPE/SOL/SUI tokens pledged to that same lender. No component of this score reflects fundamentals — this is purely supply mechanics.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:LGHL) — 711,571 ADSs. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float712K44.1%
Convertible Notes643.99M39874.3%
June Note — Senior Secured Convertible Debenture, $11,000,000 principal / $10,560,000 funded (4% OID), issued 2025-06-23/26 to ATW Digital Asset Opportunities VI LLC. 8% cash / 12% PIK-in-ADSs interest, 3-yr maturity, first-priority lien on ALL assets including the crypto treasury.
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~213K (agent-computed)
July Note — Senior Secured Convertible Debenture, $3,000,000 principal, closed 2025-07-21, same Facility, same lender
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~47K (agent-computed)
December Note — Senior Secured Convertible Debenture, consummated 2025-12-05, same Facility, same lender (principal not disclosed; implied ~$10M from share math)
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~120K (agent-computed)
January 23, 2025 Debenture held by ATW Opportunities Master Fund II LP — fixed conversion price, NOT registered for resale
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~9K (agent-computed)
UNDRAWN CAPACITY — Securities Purchase Agreement dated 2025-06-17 with ATW Digital Asset Opportunities VI LLC provides for up to $600,000,000 of senior secured convertible notes; $14,000,000 principal drawn through 2025-09-10 plus the December Note; $586,000,000 remains available via Company Option Closings AND Buyer Option Closings (the LENDER can force the company to issue more notes). 75% of every draw must be spent buying HYPE/SOL/SUI tokens.
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~643.60M (variable-estimate)
Warrants303K18.8%
common15K shares at $468
common69K shares at $468
common85K shares at $468
common12K shares at $468
common112 shares at $22.23
common76 shares at $13.22
common34K shares at $3.28
common86K shares at $1.87
common1K shares at $468
common0 shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

712K

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float97.3%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted1.62M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (4)
  • 1-for-9·Jul 14, 2026this month
  • 1-for-13·Nov 26, 2025~8 mo ago
  • 1-for-50·Mar 26, 2025~1 yr ago
  • 1-for-50·Jul 13, 2023~3 yr ago
Active mechanisms
  • Variable-rate senior secured convertible notes (June/July/December 2025) with resettable floor prices and an 'Alternate Conversion Price' — death spiral
  • $586,000,000 of undrawn convertible note capacity exercisable at the LENDER's option (Buyer's Option Closing), not just the company's
  • Effective F-3 resale shelf 333-289794 — 14,580,732,500 Class A shares free-trading on issuance to ATW
  • 4.99% ownership blocker that forces convert-and-dump cycling rather than limiting total issuance
  • Warrant blocks with demonstrated 50x anti-dilution ratchets (Series H/I/J/K) that reprice on each dilutive event
  • 12% PIK interest option — interest payable in ADSs, adding shares without any new financing
  • Serial ADS ratio changes (marketed as reverse splits) that reset the conversion runway without reducing underlying ordinary shares

Market Data

Price

$0.91

Market Cap

$840.3K

Outstanding

922.9K

Float

711.6K

Avg Volume

8.90M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry