JUNSJUPITER NEUROSCIENCES, INC. · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

485.3K
Reported Float
427.4K
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
▲ data says 485.3Koverstated 14%
730.7K
Effective Supply
1.43M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk9/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
EXTREMEAssessed Aug 7, 2026Trigger: Reverse splitCRITICALVariable-rate ELOC actively drawn / floorless at-market issuanceCRITICALExplosive recent share issuance / rapid share count growth

Supply mechanics only: JUNS is running an actively-drawn, variable-rate Yorkville SEPA that prices at 97% of the LOWEST daily VWAP over a 3-day window — a floorless at-market mechanism. Between 2026-05-14 and 2026-07-24 alone the company issued 11,470,000 pre-split shares (152,933 post-split, ~36% of estimated current float) for only $3.6M gross, and cumulative SEPA issuance reached ~12.5M pre-split shares for ~$4.1M net. Roughly $15.4M of the $20M SEPA remains undrawn, which at $5.10 post-split equates to ~3.1M post-split shares versus ~753,600 shares outstanding — more than 4x the entire company. On top of that, ~$1.5M of Yorkville Convertible Notes remain outstanding with price-protection adjustments and an explicit expectation of repayment in discounted SEPA Shares (~303,000 post-split shares at current price, more as price falls), maturing 2026-10-24. The 2026-07-20 PharmAla license adds a VWAP RESET ratchet: if the reset VWAP prints below the initial issuance price, JUNS must issue additional Reset Shares with NO downward adjustment ever — a one-way dilution spiral capped only at 19.99% of outstanding absent shareholder approval. Offsetting this: zero warrants outstanding, zero preferred outstanding, and all 15.2M pre-split options are catastrophically out-of-the-money post-split (WAEP $1.02 pre-split = $76.50 post-split vs. $5.10), so the warrant/option component contributes essentially nothing. Score of 9 rather than 10 reflects that warrant overhang is genuinely zero; everything else is maxed.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry reported float 14,686,521 — SANITY CHECK FAILED at face value: price ($5.10) is post-split but the feed's shares_outstanding (56,520,150) exactly matches the PRE-split 2026-07-28 8-K count, and $5.10 × 14,686,521 = $74.9M vs. reported market cap of only $4.24M. The float figure is therefore pre-split and has been divided by 75 → 195,820 post-split baseline.. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float485K33.8%
Float Adjustments232K16.2%
+153K sharesHIGH

11,470,000 pre-split shares (152,933 post-split) issued and sold to Yorkville under SEPA Advance Notices between 2026-05-14 and 2026-07-24 for ~$3.6M gross at 97% of lowest 3-day VWAP — issued unregistered under 4(a)(2)/506(b) but covered for resale by the effective S-1 (333-291832) via Prospectus Supplements 9 and 10; Yorkville resells into the market, so these are free-trading supply the stale feed does not capture

Source: Form 8-K filed 2026-07-28, Item 3.02/8.01

+79K sharesLOW

Estimated ~5,901,382 additional pre-split shares (78,685 post-split) issued to Yorkville between 2026-07-28 and the 2026-08-06 reverse split — derived from the gap between the confirmed 56,520,143 pre-split count and the ~832,287 post-split count implied by Insight Sentry market cap ($4,244,663) ÷ price ($5.10)

Source: Implied — Insight Sentry market cap/price reconciliation vs. 8-K 2026-07-28

Convertible Notes303K21.1%
Yorkville (YA II PN, Ltd.) Convertible Promissory Notes (Prepaid Advances under the SEPA) — First Note $4.0M issued 2025-10-27 (7% OID, $3,720,000 funded) and Second Note $2.0M issued 2025-12-23 (7% OID, $1,860,000 funded); ~$1.5M aggregate principal remaining
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~303K (agent-computed)
Options / RSUs203K14.2%
Stock Options203K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

427K

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float926.4%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted1.43M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits
  • 1-for-75·Aug 6, 2026this month
Active mechanisms
  • Yorkville SEPA / ELOC — $20M capacity, ~$15.4M remaining, priced at 97% of the LOWEST daily VWAP over a 3-consecutive-trading-day pricing period (variable-rate, effectively floorless)
  • Yorkville Convertible Notes — ~$1.5M principal remaining, stated $1.50 pre-split conversion ($112.50 post-split) but with price-protection adjustments to a contractual floor and expected settlement in discounted SEPA Shares; matures 2026-10-24
  • Effective S-1 resale registration No. 333-291832 (effective 2025-12-11) with 10 prospectus supplements — makes every Yorkville share immediately free-trading
  • PharmAla Biotech Equity Consideration — $1,833,333 in stock at 20-day VWAP with a one-way Reset Share ratchet (additional shares issued if reset VWAP falls; NEVER adjusted downward), floored at $0.0345 pre-split, capped at 19.99% of outstanding pending stockholder approval
  • PharmAla contingent milestone shares — up to $3,333,333 of the first development milestone payable 50% in stock at PharmAla's election under the same VWAP mechanics
  • 2025 Equity Incentive Plan — 5,250,000 pre-split share increase approved 2026-07-22 on top of 6,091,593 already available
  • Monthly note amortization payable in shares (deferred to 2026-04-01 by the Omnibus Amendment), with SEPA proceeds contractually required to repay the notes first

Market Data

Price

$6.20

Market Cap

$4.37M

Outstanding

770.1K

Float

485.3K

Avg Volume

5.30M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry