GELSGelteq Ltd · NASDAQ
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

3.98M
Reported Float
4.40M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
▲ data says 3.98Munderstated 11%
4.40M
Effective Supply
15.62M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk7/10
CONFIDENCE: LOW
HIGHAssessed Aug 10, 2026Trigger: Scheduled refreshCRITICALVariable-rate equity line (ELOC) at discount to marketCRITICALFloating-discount convertible notes (death-spiral mechanics)

Pending share supply of ~5.6M against a ~4.4M tradeable float (127%) sits behind two variable-priced mechanisms, which is what drives the score. (1) The Lincoln Park equity line prices at 95% of the LOWER of the day's lowest sale price and the average of the three lowest closes over the prior ten sessions — a permanent at-or-below-market issuance channel, live for 24 months from March 2025, with a 1,881,328-share Exchange Cap (~43% of float) that binds because the stock at $0.5579 is far below the $1.29 average-price carve-out; the $0.25 floor price is not yet breached, so draws remain available. (2) The May 2024 notes (~AUD$1.0M) convert at a fixed 22% discount to market — a classic ratchet where a lower price yields more shares, worth ~1.49M shares at current levels, roughly a third of the float. Offsetting these: the only warrants outstanding are 91,000 Benchmark warrants at $5.00, nearly 9x above market with no reset language — effectively zero warrant risk — and the February 2025 notes at a fixed USD$2.00 are ~3.6x out of the money. Recent activity is elevated (commitment shares issued, notes converted, equity line commenced, all within a six-month window), and the historical pattern is textbook serial financing: five separate note offerings between Oct 2023 and Feb 2025 plus an IPO. Not scored 8-10 because the largest single block (3,825,000 unissued Lincoln Park shares) is throttled by a 25,000-share/day purchase cap and cannot be dumped into the float at once.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (as-of date unknown; feed's shares outstanding of 10,711,059 matches the 2024-11-13 XBRL cover figure, i.e. the feed is stale by roughly one reporting cycle). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float3.98M25.4%
Float Adjustments425K2.7%
+175K sharesHIGH

175,000 commitment shares issued to Lincoln Park Capital Fund as the equity-line fee; registered for resale under 333-288442 and therefore free-trading

Source: 424B3 filed 2025-08-29 (Purchase Agreement dated 2025-03-13)

+250K sharesMEDIUM

~249,700 shares issued on the March 2025 noteholder-elected conversion of AUD$822,184 (~USD$534,420) at USD$2.14; issued restricted but Rule 144 holding period has long since run as of the assessment date, so treated as free-trading

Source: 424B3 filed 2025-08-29

0 sharesLOW

Lincoln Park equity-line draws between the 2025-08-29 prospectus date and the assessment date — mechanically certain to be non-zero given the company's cash position, but no subsequent prospectus supplements or cover-page updates were provided, so no share count can be booked. This is the single largest source of understatement in the estimate below.

Source: None available in extraction set

Convertible Notes3.83M24.5%
May 2024 Convertible Notes (~AUD$1,000,000; 6% coupon; maturity 2025-12-31) — convertible at a 22% DISCOUNT TO MARKET
Conv. Price: floating_discount
Est. Shares: ~1.49M (agent-computed)
February 2025 Convertible Notes (~AUD$580,000 / ~USD$377,000 funded of up to AUD$1,500,000 authorized; 20% coupon; maturity 2026-07-01) — fixed conversion at USD$2.00
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~189K (agent-computed)
October 2023 Convertible Notes (AUD$1,004,889; 12% coupon; maturity 2025-12-31) — convert-or-redeem election; residual balance after the March 2025 partial conversion/redemption is undisclosed
Conv. Price: unknown
Est. Shares: ~1.44M (estimate)
February 2024 Convertible Notes (AUD$357,338; 6% coupon; maturity 2025-12-31) — convert-or-redeem election; residual balance undisclosed
Conv. Price: unknown
Est. Shares: ~510K (estimate)
Promissory notes outstanding at 2024-12-31 (weighted average conversion price USD$2.14) — pro forma in 424B3 dilution section
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~202K (agent-computed)
Other91K0.6%
Warrants91K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

4.40M

LOW confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float127.2%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted15.62M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Active mechanisms
  • Lincoln Park $12M equity line of credit — variable pricing at 95% of the lowest of recent lows, 24-month term running to March 2027, 4,000,000 shares registered for resale
  • May 2024 convertible notes convertible at a 22% discount to market (floating-price ratchet)
  • February 2025 convertible notes, up to AUD$1,500,000 authorized with only ~AUD$580,000 drawn — remaining ~AUD$920,000 issuable at 20% coupon
  • October 2023 / February 2024 convertible notes with undisclosed residual balances and convert-or-redeem elections
  • 91,000 underwriter warrants at $5.00 (deep out of the money)

Market Data

Price

$0.70

Market Cap

$8.96M

Outstanding

10.71M

Float

3.98M

Avg Volume

7.18M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry