FBLGFibroBiologics, Inc. · Nasdaq Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

5.13M
Reported Float
5.13M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
10.83M
Effective Supply
19.44M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk8/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
HIGHAssessed Jul 17, 2026Trigger: EFFECT registration filingCRITICALPre-funded warrant overhang exceeding the entire floatCRITICALIn-the-money warrant overhang at 159% of float

Score driven entirely by pending supply mechanics versus a 5.1M float. (1) Pre-funded warrants: 5,700,334 shares at $0.00001–$0.0002 are exercisable now with no expiration and cashless exercise — a slug 111% the size of the entire quoted float, sitting one keystroke from the tape, with the 4,081,633-share Armistice tranche resale-registered as of 2026-07-16. (2) Warrant overhang: 8,163,266 June warrants struck at $0.735 are IN THE MONEY at $0.8168 — 159% of float — gated only by a stockholder vote that this issuer has cleared before (April warrants approved 2026-06-22 within 12 weeks of issuance). (3) Recent activity is relentless: April registered direct, May ATM launch and upsize, June PIPE, plus five ELOC puts in March alone — this company has raised capital in four of the last five months. (4) The $10M Yorkville ELOC (~12.2M shares at 96% of market) runs live to 2026-12-20 and the $7.44M ATM remains undrawn — combined at-market capacity ~3.4x the $5.1M market cap. Held at 8 rather than 9-10 because there are NO convertible notes outstanding (the $15M of Yorkville floating-rate paper was fully retired in November 2025), which removes the classic uncapped death-spiral from the picture; the remaining mechanisms are at-market or fixed-price rather than discount-to-VWAP ratcheting. Financial health, going concern, and cash runway are excluded from this score per methodology.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:FBLG) — sanity-checked: 5,129,086 < shares outstanding 6,080,559 and market cap $5.1M = price x outstanding, so the feed is POST-1:20-split and current, not stale/pre-split. Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float5.13M26.4%
Convertible Notes12.24M62.9%
Yorkville SEPA convertible notes (First/Second/Third Note, $15.0M principal total) — FULLY REPAID November 2025, no longer outstanding
Conv. Price: variable
Shares: Variable — cannot estimate
Yorkville SEPA equity purchase facility (ELOC) — $10.0M remaining capacity, live through 2026-12-20
Conv. Price: floating_discount
Est. Shares: ~12.24M (agent-computed)
Warrants17.71M91.1%
pre-funded4.08M shares at $0.00001
common4.08M shares at $0.735
common4.08M shares at $0.735
pre-funded1.24M shares at $0.00001
common2.27M shares at $1.32
pre-funded375K shares at $0.0002
placement_agent286K shares at $0.9188
placement_agent159K shares at $1.65
common606K shares at $6.6
common224K shares at $6.8
common261K shares at $6.6
placement_agent16K shares at $8.4
placement_agent18K shares at $8.2
common515 shares
Options / RSUs655K3.4%
Stock Options655K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

5.13M

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float596.5%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted19.44M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits
  • 1-for-20·Mar 30, 2026~4 mo ago
Active mechanisms
  • 5,700,334 pre-funded warrants at $0.00001–$0.0002 — exercisable now, no expiration, cashless exercise, 9.99% blocker only
  • 8,163,266 June 2026 warrants at $0.735 — IN THE MONEY, pending stockholder approval
  • 2,272,728 April 2026 warrants at $1.32 — approved and exercisable, currently ~1.6x OTM
  • Yorkville SEPA equity facility — $10.0M remaining capacity at 96% of market, live through 2026-12-20
  • H.C. Wainwright ATM — $7.44M remaining of $7.5M at 3.0% commission, under shelf S-3 333-284663
  • S-3 333-297353 resale shelf effective 2026-07-16 — 12,530,613 shares
  • 444,805 placement agent warrants (H.C. Wainwright designees) at $0.9188 and $1.65
  • 655,441 options outstanding + 1,969,559 reserved under the 2026 Plan with a 4%-of-outstanding annual evergreen through 2036

Market Data

Price

$0.71

Market Cap

$4.33M

Outstanding

6.08M

Float

5.13M

Avg Volume

68.1K

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry