From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.
There are NO variable-rate or death-spiral convertibles, no preferred stock, and no ELOC. The only true conversion overhang is 6,567,272 Class B shares convertible 1:1 into Class A at holder option with automatic conversion on transfer to a non-affiliate — 13.5% of float, ungated by price, but affiliate-held super-voting stock that is unlikely to be dumped wholesale. Warrant overhang is negligible: 3,500,000 at $0.80 versus $0.4225 last price (89% out of the money), no reset or ratchet, expiring 2026-11-19. What drives the score is realized and near-term issuance: non-affiliate Class A went from 22,161,978 (2025-10-02) to 21,066,439 (2026-05-20, post-affiliate-reclassification) to 48,740,598 (2026-07-23), and shares outstanding are up ~138% year over year. Management has priced four raises in eleven months, three of them self-underwritten registered directs at $0.55 into $1.32-$1.40 markets (58-61% discounts). Forward primary capacity is real but capped: with $24.8M non-affiliate market value the Form F-3 I.B.5 baby-shelf limit is ~$8.27M per 12 months, roughly $4.1M of which remains after $4.18M of trailing-12-month takedowns — about 9.7M shares at $0.4225, or 20% of float. A fresh $200M F-3 was filed 2026-07-24 (still baby-shelf constrained). Scoring stops short of 8-10 because there is no active toxic conversion machine relative to float; it exceeds 4 because the issuer demonstrably issues stock at deep discounts every few months and has explicitly flagged a reverse split before the 2026-11-16 Nasdaq bid-price deadline, the classic setup for a post-split re-dilution cycle.
Share Structure
Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown
Reported float from Insight Sentry (as-of date unknown; reported shares outstanding 54,570,838, price $0.4225, market cap $23.06M). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.
Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 48.74M vs 38.14M reported — understated 28%
The Insight Sentry float of 38,135,212 understates real free-trading supply by ~10.6M shares (28%). The feed also reports 54,570,838 shares outstanding — internally impossible, since that is LESS than the issuer's own stated Class A non-affiliate count (48,740,598) plus Class B (6,567,272) plus any affiliate Class A. The feed has missed the share expansion between the 2026-05-22 424B5 and the 2026...
Reconcile stale feed float to issuer-certified non-affiliate Class A count on the F-3 cover page (48,740,598 as of 2026-07-23) — the feed has not yet captured the ~27.7M share expansion in non-affiliate Class A between 2026-05-20 (21,066,439) and 2026-07-23
Source: F-3 filed 2026-07-24, cover page public float calculation
Component already inside the reconciliation above (itemized, not additive): 3,600,000 Class A issued in the self-underwritten $0.55 takedown delivered on/about 2026-05-26
Source: 424B5 filed 2026-05-22
Component already inside the reconciliation above (itemized, not additive): 7,000,000 Reg S PIPE Class A issued 2025-11-19 now past the distribution compliance period and free-trading
Source: 424B5 filed 2026-05-22 — financing transactions
Reported float + filing adjustments
MEDIUM confidence
Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.
Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.
See the full breakdown
Red flags, financing counterparties, the deal timeline, and every SEC filing — free with an account.
Sign in to continue- not disclosed — filings state all share amounts give retroactive effect to prior share consolidations, the last effected 2020-04-24·Apr 24, 2020~6 yr ago
- ▸Form F-3 primary shelf takedowns via self-underwritten registered directs priced at deep discounts to market (three in twelve months)
- ▸New $200M F-3 filed 2026-07-24 with $195.82M carry-forward, replacing the shelf expiring 2026-08-09
- ▸Class B to Class A 1:1 conversion, automatic on transfer to non-affiliate (6,567,272 shares)
- ▸Regulation S offshore placements to unnamed purchasers (bypasses registration, restricted stock seasons into the float)
- ▸Contemplated reverse share split before 2026-11-16 to cure the Nasdaq minimum bid price deficiency
Market Data
$0.45
$29.10M
54.57M
38.14M
5.30M