CVKDCadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. · Nasdaq Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

3.17M
Reported Float
3.17M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
4.62M
Effective Supply
8.10M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk7/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
HIGHAssessed Sep 1, 2026Trigger: ReassessmentCRITICALWarrant overhang concentrated in a single counterpartyCRITICALRapid share count growth

Score is driven almost entirely by warrant overhang and issuance velocity, not by any convertible or preferred instrument — there are zero convertible notes and zero preferred shares outstanding, so that 40% component scores near zero. What replaces it: 4,595,140 warrants outstanding against a 3.17M float (145% of float), of which the 491,000 remaining pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 are deeply in the money and exercisable on demand with an effective resale registration, and 960,000 Series C-2 warrants at $3.00 are immediately exercisable and registered. At the $1.75 market price the $3.00 Series C/$3.9063 PA warrants are ~71-123% out of the money and the $4.50 Series B and $10.60 2025 warrants are 157-506% out of the money, which meaningfully caps near-term exercise pressure from those tranches — but the anti-dilution and repricing history here is the tell: the November 2024 warrants at $16.50 were repriced to $4.50 in April 2026, a 73% cut. This issuer has demonstrated it will reprice out-of-the-money paper downward rather than let it expire, which converts 'far OTM' overhang into near-the-money overhang on demand. Recent activity scores very high: outstanding grew 24.4% in a single quarter (2026-05-06 to 2026-08-13) and 115% over twelve months, with four separate financings in nine months (Dec 2025 registered direct, Q1 2026 ATM, April 2026 inducement, July 2026 PIPE). Historical pattern adds a 1-for-15 reverse split in August 2024 and a single dominant counterparty (Armistice Capital) working through a single placement agent (H.C. Wainwright) on repeat. The PIPE's one-year variable-rate prohibition is the one genuine mitigant — it blocks a death-spiral structure until July 2027 — and the ATM restriction lapses ~2026-09-18.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:CVKD). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float3.17M39.2%
Warrants4.13M51.0%
pre-funded491K shares at $0.0001
common960K shares at $3
common960K shares at $3
common571K shares at $4.5
common571K shares at $4.5
common415K shares at $10.6
placement_agent62K shares at $3.9063
placement_agent37K shares at $5.625
placement_agent13K shares at $13.5625
placement_agent19K shares at $20.625
placement_agent19K shares at $32.8125
placement_agent6K shares at $90
placement_agent1K shares at $15
placement_agent767 shares at $45
Options / RSUs403K5.0%
Stock Options403K shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

3.17M

MEDIUM confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float153.84%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted8.10M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

See the full breakdown

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits
  • 1-for-15·Aug 20, 2024~2 yr ago
Active mechanisms
  • 491,000 remaining pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 — exercisable on demand, resale-registered, economically already stock
  • 960,000 Series C-2 warrants at $3.00 — immediately exercisable, resale registration effective 2026-07-20
  • 960,000 Series C-1 warrants at $3.00 — become exercisable on stockholder approval at the 2026-09-24 annual meeting (Nasdaq 5635(d) proposal)
  • ATM facility with H.C. Wainwright (3.0% commission) — usable again beginning ~2026-09-18 after the 60-day PIPE standstill lapses
  • 1,142,860 Series B-1/B-2 warrants at $4.50 — resale-registered, currently OTM but subject to repricing precedent
  • 414,748 2025 Common Warrants at $10.60 — resale-registered, deep OTM
  • Warrant inducement/repricing playbook — demonstrated twice (Nov 2024, April 2026); converts OTM paper into cash plus fresh replacement warrants
  • 7,500,000 authorized blank-check preferred, zero issued — Board may designate a convertible series without stockholder approval
  • 2022 Plan evergreen provision — annual January 1 increase to 20% of (shares outstanding plus warrant/pre-funded warrant shares outstanding at December 31)

Market Data

Price

$1.19

Market Cap

$4.25M

Outstanding

3.57M

Float

3.17M

Avg Volume

2.35M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry