From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.
The score is driven almost entirely by warrant overhang and relentless recent issuance activity, not by convertibles. CONVERTIBLES/PREFERREDS (40% weight, sub-score 1): There are ZERO company-issued convertible notes, ZERO outstanding preferred shares, and zero derivative liabilities. The only variable-rate instrument is the StemSpine milestone payable to CMH at a 30% discount with a sub-penny doubling clause — but it is contingent on Phase 3 first-patient dosing and only $400,000 in size (~707K shares at current prices), so it is not near-term actionable. Critically, the company is also contractually barred from variable-rate transactions for 180 days after the pending S-1 closing. WARRANTS (30% weight, sub-score 6): 5,580,680 June 2026 Inducement Warrants at $1.60 plus ~1.73M legacy Armistice/Hudson Bay warrants and ~963K other warrants sit against a 6.5M float — roughly 130% of float in warrant overhang. However, at $0.664 the $1.60 strike is 2.4x above market and the $2.86/$3.75/$4.73 legacy strikes are 4x-7x above market, all deeply out-of-the-money with no reset provisions on the currently outstanding tranches, AND the largest tranche cannot be exercised at all until stockholder approval on August 28, 2026. That caps near-term warrant risk. The offsetting factor is the demonstrated repricing pattern: this company has repriced warrants downward FOUR times ($4.42 to $3.75 to $2.86 to $1.60), so 'out-of-the-money' has repeatedly proven temporary — management resets strikes to market rather than letting warrants expire. RECENT ACTIVITY (20% weight, sub-score 9): Extremely active. Shares outstanding went from 2,580,532 (Nov 2025) to 3,696,668 (Mar 2026) to 4,741,236 (Jun 30, 2026) to 6,592,557 (Jul 24, 2026) — a 155% increase in nine months. Four separate capital events in 20 months plus a live best-efforts S-1 and a pending authorized-share increase from 25M to 100M. HISTORICAL PATTERN (10% weight, sub-score 8): Three or four documented reverse splits (1-for-150 in 2020, 1-for-500 in 2021, 1-for-10 in 2023, plus an undisclosed December 2024 Nevada amendment implying roughly 1-for-5), cumulative compression exceeding 3,750,000-to-1. Counterparties are Armistice Capital and Hudson Bay — the two most prolific micro-cap warrant-repricing funds in the market — with Roth Capital as serial advisor taking 8% fees on every round. This is a textbook serial-inducement treadmill. Score lands at 6 rather than 8-9 because the CURRENT structure has no convertibles and no in-the-money warrants; it lands above 4 because the issuance cadence is aggressive, the pending S-1 carries FULL-RATCHET Public Warrants, and the authorized-share increase proposal signals intent to keep issuing.
Share Structure
Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown
Reported float from Insight Sentry (reported_float 4,696,593; reported shares_outstanding 4,741,837). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.
Float Discrepancy: our SEC analysis shows 6.55M vs 4.70M reported — understated 39%
Insight Sentry reports 4,696,593 float against 4,741,837 outstanding at $0.664 (market cap $3.15M). That share count matches the DEF 14A June 30, 2026 record date (4,741,236) almost exactly — meaning the feed HAS captured the June 30 inducement warrant exercise (2,790,340 shares at $1.60) that lifted outstanding from 3,696,668 to ~4.74M, but has NOT captured the further increase to 6,592,557 discl...
Insight Sentry float is stale — it reflects the post-June-30-2026 warrant exercise share count (4,741,236 per DEF 14A record date 2026-06-30) but MISSES the subsequent issuance bringing outstanding to 6,592,557 per the July 24, 2026 S-3 cover. Net add of 1,851,321 issued shares between 2026-06-30 and 2026-07-24, essentially all registered and free-trading (only ~35,000 affiliate shares restricted).
Source: S-3 filed 2026-07-24 (6,592,557 outstanding) vs DEF 14A filed 2026-07-14 (4,741,236 as of 2026-06-30 record date)
Reconciliation of affiliate-held restricted shares: Insight Sentry float of 4,696,593 already deducts ~45,244 from its 4,741,837 outstanding, consistent with the ~35,000-49,454 affiliate figure. No further insider deduction applied to avoid double-subtraction.
Source: DEF 14A filed 2026-07-14; S-1 filed 2026-06-25
Reported float + filing adjustments
MEDIUM confidence
Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.
Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.
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Sign in to continue- 1-for-150·Feb 3, 2020~7 yr ago
- 1-for-500·Nov 10, 2021~5 yr ago
- 1-for-10·Jun 12, 2023~3 yr ago
- undisclosed — Nevada Certificate of Amendment filed 2024-12-19 (8-K filed 2024-12-26); retroactive option repricing from $16.90 to $83.96 weighted average implies approximately 1:5·Dec 19, 2024~2 yr ago
- ▸Serial warrant-exercise inducement treadmill: each round reprices existing warrants downward, harvests the cash, and issues 2x new warrants at the new lower strike — outstanding warrants have grown from 2,284,932 (Sep 2024) to 6,100,719 (Mar 2026) to ~10,633,425 (Jun 2026)
- ▸Pending S-1 best-efforts offering (File No. 333-297026) for up to 3,045,685 shares plus 6,091,371 Public Warrants carrying FULL-RATCHET anti-dilution reset to any future lower issuance price
- ▸Pending resale S-3 for 5,580,680 Inducement Warrant shares held by Armistice and Hudson Bay
- ▸August 28, 2026 special meeting: Nasdaq 5635(d) approval to make 5,580,680 warrants exercisable AND authorized share increase from 25,000,000 to 100,000,000 (creating ~84.6M unreserved shares)
- ▸Securities purchase agreement obligates the company to call stockholder meetings every 60 days until warrant-exercise approval is obtained
- ▸StemSpine milestone obligation to related party CMH payable in stock at a 30% discount to the lowest 20-day closing price, with a doubling clause below $0.01
Market Data
$0.67
$6.64M
4.74M
4.70M
4.48M