ISPCiSpecimen Inc. · NASDAQ Capital Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

2.52M
Reported Float
2.52M
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
5.77M
Effective Supply
5.77M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk8/10
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
HIGHAssessed Aug 29, 2026Trigger: ReassessmentCRITICALNear-zero-strike pre-funded warrant overhangCRITICALNear-zero-strike pre-funded warrant overhang

The entire risk is warrant overhang, and it is enormous: 3,253,011 pre-funded warrants struck at $0.0001 — infinitely in-the-money, immediately exercisable, no expiration, registered — against a 2,518,590 tradeable float. That is 129% of float in supply that requires zero further company action and zero incremental cash from the holder. 2,849,923 of those came from an offering that closed only three weeks ago (Aug 7, 2026), so the holders are fresh and unhedged in terms of distribution. Recent issuance activity is at maximum: shares outstanding grew 75.2% in a single quarter (2026-05-15 to 2026-08-14, deterministic XBRL) and 1,719% over twelve months on a split-adjusted basis. Offsetting this, the convertible/preferred component is effectively zero — all 6,875 Series C preferred converted and none remain, there are no variable-rate notes, no ELOC, no disclosed ATM, and total debt is $0. Legacy warrants ($6,400 strike) and options ($2,012 WAEP) are worthless and irrelevant. Score is set at 8 rather than the mechanical 6.3 weighted output because the calibration rule explicitly reserves 8-10 for 'massive in-the-money warrant overhang' relative to float, which this is by any measure.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (NASDAQ:ISPC). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float2.52M43.6%
Warrants3.25M56.4%
pre-funded2.85M shares at $0.0001
pre-funded403K shares at $0.0001
common16 shares at $6400
placement_agent0 shares at $8000
Other790.0%
Options / RSUs79 shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

2.52M

HIGH confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float129.16%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted5.77M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (2)
  • 1-for-20·Sep 13, 2024~2 yr ago
  • 1-for-40·Apr 27, 2026~4 mo ago
Active mechanisms
  • 3,253,011 pre-funded warrants at $0.0001 strike — immediately exercisable, no expiration, metered only by 4.99%/9.99% ownership blockers
  • Serial best-efforts registered direct offerings via E.F. Hutton at ~90-day cadence, each priced at a discount to then-current market
  • 50,000,000 authorized blank-check preferred with Board-set terms (Series C precedent: 6,875 preferred → 1,192,819 common in six months)
  • Repeat reverse splits used to reset per-share price and re-enable subsequent low-priced issuance

Market Data

Price

$1.55

Market Cap

$3.90M

Outstanding

2.52M

Float

2.52M

Avg Volume

2.24M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry