DFNST3 Defense Inc. · Nasdaq Global Market
Effective Supply — the real overhang

From what's tradeable today to what's realistically coming. Bigger = more selling pressure ahead.

704.1K
Reported Float
704.1K
Tradeable Now
(estimated float)
944.1K
Effective Supply
3.48M
Fully Diluted
Dilution risk10/10
CONFIDENCE: LOW
EXTREMEAssessed Jul 20, 2026Trigger: Reverse splitCRITICALReset-priced preferred stock (functional death spiral)CRITICALBlack-Scholes cashless-exchange warrants with $0.01 floor

Post-split float is roughly 704,000 shares against a $10.0M Series B Convertible Preferred whose conversion price RESETS to market on registration effectiveness (achieved 2026-06-30) and carries full price-based anti-dilution — at the current $4.26 post-split price that single instrument converts into ~2.35 million shares, roughly 3.3x the entire float, with a second identical $10.0M tranche contracted. The February 2026 Common Warrants (56,338 post-split at $266.25) carry a Black-Scholes cashless exchange feature with a $0.01 pre-split floor, meaning their deliverable share count expands as the price falls rather than going out of the money. Layered on top is a live, registered, shareholder-approved Esousa ELOC with ~$6.6M/month drawdown capacity against a $5.3M market cap, which drew 3,968,116 pre-split shares for only $3.53M in Q1 2026. Realized dilution has been relentless: 4,790,431 shares (2025-02-10) to 126,311,904 pre-split — a 26x increase in seventeen months — including a deterministic 59.3% jump between 2026-04-07 and 2026-05-20 alone. Two reverse splits in under two years (1-for-8 in Oct 2024, 1-for-125 in Jul 2026, cumulative 1,000:1) confirm the reset-and-redilute cycle. Every scoring component is at or near maximum.

Share Structure

Float to Fully Diluted Breakdown

LIKELY STALE

Reported float from Insight Sentry (pre-split scale — feed shows float 88,007,380 vs outstanding 126,311,904, both pre-split; feed market cap of $5,305,100 at $4.26 implies ~1.25M post-split shares, confirming the share figures are stale/pre-split). Adjusted based on SEC filing analysis.

Reported Float704K20.2%
Convertible Notes6.39M183.6%
Six-Month Note issued to Star 26, assigned to Star shareholders, 8% p.a.
Conv. Price: unknown
Est. Shares: ~690K (estimate)
Tiltan secured note (Arie Shafir) with escrowed-share true-up — additional shares or cash owed if 2,000,000 escrowed shares are worth less than 25% of purchase price on settlement
Conv. Price: variable
Est. Shares: ~2.01M (variable-estimate)
Nimbus Note (Elad Defense LLC), $3.25M 6% convertible at fixed $2.00
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~13K (agent-computed)
$16,000,000 Investment Note (Star 26)
Conv. Price: fixed
Est. Shares: ~3.68M (estimate)
Warrants186K5.3%
common56K shares at $266.25
common96K shares at $187.5
common22K shares at $675.63
common7K shares at $11500
common2K shares at $550
common3K shares at $750
placement_agent0 shares
pre-funded0 shares at $0.0001
Other390.0%
Options / RSUs39 shares
≈ Estimated Actual Float

Reported float + filing adjustments

704K

LOW confidence

Pending Shares as % of Float408.2%

Registered and convertible shares that could enter the float relative to current float size.

Fully Diluted3.48M100%

Share estimates are approximate. Convertible share counts based on current price. Review SEC filings for exact terms.

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Dilution profile
Reverse splits (2)
  • 1-for-8·Oct 11, 2024~2 yr ago
  • 1-for-125·Jul 20, 2026this month
Active mechanisms
  • Series B Convertible Preferred with market-reset conversion price and full price-based anti-dilution ($10.0M funded, $10.0M second tranche contracted)
  • Esousa equity line of credit — up to $250,000,000 / ~$6.6M per month, registered and shareholder-approved, actively drawn in Q1 2026
  • February 2026 Common Warrants with Black-Scholes cashless exchange at a $0.01 floor — share count expands as price falls
  • Effective resale registration 333-296513 covering 30,000,000 pre-split shares for a single selling stockholder
  • 3,100,000 pre-split ELOC advance shares already transferred to the investor and available for sale
  • Tiltan escrowed-share true-up obligation payable in additional shares
  • CEO quarterly 250,000-share consulting grant accruing until plan capacity exists
  • Repriced insider warrants (CEO Star Warrant reset from $1.50 to $0.5124)

Market Data

Price

$4.35

Market Cap

$6.70M

Outstanding

1.01M

Float

704.1K

Avg Volume

5.69M

Exchange: NASDAQ|Source: Insight Sentry